From The Economist print edition
Why are prices soaring?
猪肉价格为何飞涨?
WHILE many China-watchers fret about the consequences of a collapse of China's stock market, Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, seems more worried about the risk of social unrest as a result of the rocketing price of pork. A 50% rise in the average nationwide price over the past year is causing squeals of alarm. Last week Mr Wen went so far as to visit a farm to show he is taking the issue seriously.
正当众多中国观察家为中国股市崩盘的后果不堪设想而忧心忡忡之时，温家宝总理却似乎更担心暴涨的猪肉价格可能会造成社会不稳定。过去一年全国平均肉价50%的增长引起了恐慌。上周，温先生甚至视察了一家农场，以此表明他对这一问题非常重视。
Mr Wen promised that the government would act to ensure adequate supplies of pork; if necessary, to stabilise prices it can release stocks from its strategic reserves of both frozen pork and live pigs. Pork is China's staple meat. The average person eats more pork than in any country other than Germany. But it accounts for almost 4% of China's consumer-price basket, against less than 1% in Germany. Rising pork prices could therefore push up China's inflation rate over coming months. Jiming Ha, chief economist at China International Capital Corporation, estimates that inflation will rise to 3.4% in May, from 3% in April.
温先生承诺，政府会采取行动，确保猪肉的足量供应;如果必要，政府还可动用冻猪肉和生猪的战略储备来稳定肉价。猪肉是中国的主要肉食品，一般人的猪肉消费量比除德国外的任何一个国家都要多。但与德国不到1%相比，猪肉在中国占菜篮子总价近4%，。因此，未来几个月里，上涨的猪肉价格会推动中国通胀率的上升。中国国际金融有限公司的首席经济学家Jiming Ha估计，通货膨胀将从4月份的3%升至5月份的3.4%。
Economists are scratching their heads to explain the price jump. Some blame it on blue-ear, a contagious disease which may have killed 18,000 or 20m pigs, depending on whom you believe. Others say the main cause is the surge in global grain prices, which have increased the cost of feed for pigs. It is not only the Chinese who are paying more for their pork. Capital Economics, a London-based economics firm, points out that American pork prices have also jumped by more than 50% over the past year.